AGP Executive Report

Election Campaign: Serbia’s Electoral Commission has approved 18 lists for the October 25 parliamentary vote. Vučić campaigned in Kragujevac as the ruling SNS’s candidate for prime minister, while the student movement is taking its campaign to TV and billboards. Thirteen SPS members in Rakovica have quit amid a wider party split. Election Conditions: Disputes over diaspora voting continue, with Serbian diplomats and opposition figures warning that access abroad is restricted. The government has not officially invited European Parliament observers, while media ownership and editorial independence are also under scrutiny. Foreign Affairs: Foreign Minister Marko Đurić met Swiss lawmakers, discussing bilateral ties and Kosovo, where he raised concerns over Serb rights. Economy: The National Bank of Serbia kept its benchmark rate at 5.75%, citing inflation trends and international risks.

Election Countdown: Serbia’s electoral commission has finalized 18 lists with 2,418 candidates for the October 25 parliamentary election, including the ruling SNS-backed ticket and the Student List. The vote will test public support after two years of protests over the Novi Sad station disaster, which killed 16 people. Voting Integrity: Opposition figures say the government has not invited European Parliament observers, while overseas voting arrangements draw criticism. Polling abroad is set to follow Serbia’s 7 a.m.–8 p.m. hours, regardless of local time. Media Pressure: Nova staff are protesting the new owners’ choice of editors from pro-government outlet Blic, renewing concerns about editorial independence ahead of the vote. Campaign Trail: Vučić’s Kragujevac rally prompted organizers to move part of a memorial volleyball tournament to another venue; critics questioned whether the rally’s turnout reflects public support or party organization.

Election Watch: With Serbia’s snap vote set for Oct. 25, CRTA reports 203 cases of negative campaigning, obstruction or violence across 45 towns and cities. It also found opposition parties received about half the airtime given to the ruling bloc, often in a negative tone. Diaspora Voting: Thirty-seven former ambassadors backed serving diplomats’ objections to fewer overseas polling stations and voting by Serbian time. A watchdog says the arrangements threaten voters’ rights; the European Parliament still has no invitation to observe. EXPO 2027: The project is a campaign flashpoint, with opposition figures promising to halt it and investigate contracts, while the SNS calls it a driver of investment and growth. Kosovo: Justina Shiroka-Pula’s election as president ended a long political deadlock and averted another vote. She has met Prime Minister Albin Kurti; a controversial law limiting the Hague court’s powers is an early test for her presidency. Regional Politics: Reports that Trump-linked advisers worked for Bosnia’s pro-Russian Milorad Dodik ahead of elections have drawn scrutiny in the US.

Election Watch: Serbian watchdog CRTA says intimidation, unlawful surveillance and “electoral engineering” are threatening the October 25 vote. It estimates about 22,000 citizens abroad could be unable to vote because polling stations are not being opened in some locations. Overseas Voting: Thirty-seven retired diplomats backed serving colleagues’ objections to the arrangements, including fewer polling stations and voting hours set to Serbian time. Campaign Tensions: SNS supporters have clashed with one another and with supporters of the Student List during campaigning in Belgrade, amid a series of confrontations in several cities. EXPO Dispute: Opposition leader Dragan Djilas says a new government would cancel EXPO 2027 and audit its contracts; SNS leader Miloš Vučević calls cancellation a threat to investment and development. Regional Politics: Kosovo lawmakers elected Justina Široka Pula president, averting a snap election. In Bosnia, a New York Times report says two senior Trump political operatives advised pro-Russian politician Milorad Dodik ahead of the recent vote; the claims have drawn criticism from Republicans.

Kosovo: Lawmakers elected Justina Shiroka Pula president just before a deadline that could have triggered another snap election. The vote followed passage of a law restricting the powers of the Hague war-crimes court, drawing thousands of protesters. Serbia’s Election: Students have challenged the election commission’s diaspora voting rules, arguing they make it harder for citizens abroad to vote; they say more than 111,000 registered. Reports of street clashes involving ruling SNS supporters add to tensions ahead of the October 25 snap poll. Media Oversight: Serbia’s electronic media regulator has opened proceedings against RTS and five other broadcasters over alleged political use of minors in content supporting Vučić’s electoral list. EU Path: The European Commission’s latest enlargement plans name four candidate countries for road maps, but not Serbia. Commissioner Marta Kos says Serbia must make further progress. Energy Links: Serbia says it will begin laying pipes next week for a gas interconnector with North Macedonia, planned to be completed in early 2028 and linked to wider regional supply routes.

Election Tensions: Campaigning ahead of Serbia’s Oct. 25 parliamentary vote turned physical in Belgrade, where supporters of the ruling SNS and the Student List clashed; videos appear to show men swinging batons before police separated the groups. Voting Access: More than 500,000 voters are listed at addresses without a street name or number, raising opposition concerns about electoral integrity. Serbian diaspora groups also say voters abroad face unusual restrictions and a lack of polling stations. EU Accession: Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said Serbia must take concrete steps toward membership, particularly on foreign-policy alignment, and pledged to judge the next government by its actions. Energy Security: Regional data show Serbia’s fuel reserves cover 51 days of net imports, short of the 90-day requirement, despite officials’ earlier claims of 90 days’ supply. Construction of a gas link with North Macedonia is due to begin next week. Military Site Charges: The Defense Ministry says it has filed criminal charges against two YouTubers who entered a fenced-off section of Batajnica air base; it says the aircraft shown are decommissioned and the area is being prepared for reuse.

Elections & Governance: Serbia’s opposition says it is being blocked at the ballot box as the country heads toward the Oct. 25 early parliamentary vote, with claims of irregularities and pressure on independent media; Aleksandar Vučić also doubled down on campaign messaging, saying there will be no talk of federalisation or “destruction of Serbia” while insisting strategic dialogue with the US can deliver “big things.” Belgrade Local Politics: The opposition “Kreni Promeni” walked out of the Belgrade Assembly session after a dispute involving mayor Aleksandar Šapić, with medical claims of serious injuries and calls for a dedicated follow-up session. Kosovo Political Crisis: Kosovo narrowly avoided a snap election by electing a new, largely ceremonial president, Justina Shiroka Pula, amid protests over changes tied to the Hague war-crimes court—raising fears of renewed deadlock. Energy & Regional Connectivity: Serbia’s gas interconnector with North Macedonia is moving forward, with first pipes due next week and a target to finish the route by Q1 2028, while ministers also pushed broader Balkan energy links. EU Enlargement: The European Commission unveiled a wider-enlargement plan with a gradual integration approach and post-access safeguards, aiming to make expansion more acceptable to current members.

Serbia Election Watch: Aleksandar Vučić says there will be no talks about federalisation or “destruction of Serbia,” while the campaign intensifies around October 25 and diaspora voting access. Diaspora Voting Dispute: “Vreme” reports Serbia’s ministry did not request extra polling stations in Germany, leaving some cities out and raising backlash ahead of the vote. Media Freedom Under Pressure: OSCE’s media freedom representative Jan Braathu warns REM’s credibility is questioned after it chose not to monitor TV Informer during the election campaign. Spyware Case: Student activist Jelena Kontić filed a criminal complaint over alleged Pegasus spyware infection, asking prosecutors to act quickly. Labour Fallout: Subotica’s “8. Mart” sock factory bankruptcy leaves 150+ workers without jobs and unpaid wages. Regional Energy Diplomacy: Energy ministers from Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and North Macedonia meet in Belgrade to discuss gas and electricity corridors and security. UEFA Nations League Fallout: UEFA opens an investigation into an alleged halftime tunnel spitting incident between Ireland and Israel in Backa Topola.

Kosovo War-Crimes Court Tensions: Police clashed with protesters in Pristina after Kosovo’s parliament failed to pass amendments that would curb the powers of the Hague-based Specialist Chambers, capping sentences at 15 years, allowing appeals to Kosovo’s Supreme Court, and enabling serving sentences in Kosovo; clashes left at least 17 injured and several detained as anger flared over the recent Thaci verdict. Serbia Politics & Security: A student from the “Students Will Win” list says police have been physically following and surveilling him and fellow students for months, alleging involvement of senior criminal police figures and warning about possible tracking or bugging. Energy Diplomacy: Serbia hosted a regional energy ministers’ forum in Belgrade as Greece, North Macedonia, and Bulgaria discussed boosting the Vertical Gas Corridor and regional gas/electricity interconnections, with plans to improve routes toward Serbia and beyond. Foreign Policy: Serbia’s caretaker foreign minister Marko Đurić opened bilateral political consultations with the UAE, highlighting cooperation in energy and renewable projects. Elections Watch (Bosnia): Milorad Dodik urged Trump and Putin to back Republika Srpska’s independence ahead of Bosnia’s election fallout.

Serbian Elections Abroad: The Republic Electoral Commission set voting abroad for Oct. 25 from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. CET, matching Serbia’s hours—sparking claims it effectively halves time for diaspora voters in the Americas, Australia and Indonesia and raises safety concerns about night voting. Media & Regulation: RTS workers and a “Our Protest” group apologized to citizens over the editor-in-chief of RTS’s information program, while N1 says REM used its staff identity data for a broadcast license request without informing or consulting the editorial office. Party Fallout: Socialist Party of Serbia officials submitted mass resignations, citing loss of independence and narrowing space for criticism inside the SPS. Regional Diplomacy: Serbia’s FM Marko Đurić stressed stability and a forward-looking approach at the Berlin Process, criticizing Bosnia’s campaign rhetoric toward Serbia. Energy Preparedness: An Energy Community expert said Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia lead on oil-crisis readiness thanks to legislation and physical stocks. Bosnia Vote Watch: Preliminary results show nationalist gains and a pro-Russia Serb leader’s bloc strengthening, with low turnout and renewed instability fears.

Bosnia Election Shockwaves: Bosnia and Herzegovina’s nationalist parties consolidated power in Sunday’s general elections, with Denis Becirović and Zeljka Cvijanović returning to the tripartite presidency and Darijana Filipović winning the Croat seat, while turnout hit a record low around 41.5%, setting up another tense political cycle. Serbia-Linked Regional Context: Preliminary CIK figures point to continued dominance of Dodik’s SNSD in Republika Srpska and a fragmented parliament, keeping EU-path and governance stability under pressure. Ireland–Israel in Serbia Turns Political: In Backa Topola, Ireland and Israel played a behind-closed-doors Nations League match that again became a flashpoint over Gaza-linked black armbands, anthem gestures, and a halftime confrontation; Ireland’s coach Hallgrimsson called for UEFA to keep the teams apart, while UEFA later banned two Israeli journalists from post-match interviews after chaos at a press conference. Nations League Results With Local Relevance: The Netherlands beat Serbia 2-1 (Zirkzee winner) and Portugal booked quarter-finals by beating Norway 2-1, while Greece held Germany 0-0—results that keep Serbia’s campaign at the bottom. War Crimes Legacy: Biljana Plavšić, the former Bosnian Serb leader convicted by the Hague, died in Belgrade at 96, renewing attention on the region’s unresolved wartime justice.

Bosnia Election Day: Polls opened across Bosnia and Herzegovina for general elections with 3.41 million registered voters choosing the tripartite presidency, parliament seats, and entity leadership; voting runs 7 a.m.–7 p.m., with 518 officials on the ballot and new biometric ID plus ballot scanning introduced to curb irregularities. Serbia Politics & Governance: Aleksandar Vučić says a future government after Serbia’s Oct. 25 parliamentary vote would have just 12 ministers (down from 31) and promises continuity in foreign policy, including no sanctions on Russia; the Student List is pushing back hard on election rules for voting abroad. Ireland–Israel Tensions in Serbia: Ahead of the Nations League rematch in Bačka Topola, Ireland coach Heimir Hallgrimsson’s press conference was cut short after clashes with Israeli journalists over racism allegations and wider Gaza-related controversy. Religious Rights Debate: The Serbian Orthodox Church warns that Christians in Palestine face persecution and discrimination, urging protection of religious communities and respect for international law. Belgrade Security: A 250kg aerial bomb was destroyed in Palilula with mandatory evacuations within 150 meters, after police secured the area.

Serbia’s Election Campaign: Aleksandar Vučić kicked off his push to become prime minister, drawing thousands to Belgrade’s Arena ahead of snap parliamentary elections on Oct. 25, with the SNS expecting to secure a majority and move him into the PM role. Foreign Policy & Russia Ties: At the same rally, Vučić said Serbia will keep defending national interests and maintain traditional friendship with Russia, stressing it has not imposed sanctions. Slovakia’s Fico Backs Vučić: Slovak PM Robert Fico endorsed Vučić but skipped the event after health advice, while still sending a prepared message backing the Serbian leader. Diplomacy in Focus: Serbia’s foreign ministry officials met counterparts in Dakar and with Azerbaijan’s new ambassador, highlighting cooperation in energy, trade, security and long-standing ties. Bosnia Vote Looms: Bosnia and Herzegovina is set for general elections with biometric voting and major turnout, as the postwar order faces fresh strain. Ireland-Israel Nations League Fallout (in Serbia): Ireland’s pre-match press conference in Backa Topola ended abruptly after an Israeli journalist raised alleged racism claims, while Ireland’s leadership argues a boycott would harm Ireland without helping Palestinians. Sports Governance Debate: Netherlands coach Xavi Hernandez joined criticism of FIFA’s expanded international schedule, warning it increases injury risk for players and clubs.

US–Serbia Relations: US senators Chuck Grassley and Richard Blumenthal introduced the SRBIJA Act, proposing tougher scrutiny of Belgrade’s judicial accountability, media freedom, and ties to Russia/China, with sanctions aimed at corruption and rights abuses ahead of Serbia’s Oct. 25 snap parliamentary elections. Public Media & Elections: Serbia’s public broadcaster RTS is under fire from BIRODI and staff over how it selects and presents public-opinion polls, with employees apologizing to citizens and critics warning that mismatched results can fuel “false hope” and election-stolen narratives. Accountability Politics: Opposition figure Marinika Tepić says that after a change of power, prosecutors must examine documented claims raised by investigative journalists and whistleblowers—regardless of who is implicated. Diaspora Voting: A legal expert warns diaspora voters may face major hurdles because Serbia is not required to open polling stations outside embassies/consulates, even when enough citizens apply. Labor Pressure in Education: A teachers’ union warns the next education employment round could enable pressure on long-term fixed-term staff, including via conditions tied to “safe votes.” Sports & Security Fallout (Serbia Host): Ireland’s pre-match press conference for the Nations League rematch with Israel in Bačka Topola was cut short after clashes with Israeli journalists over allegations of racism and a heated question about a Flydubai flight incident; the match is behind closed doors due to security concerns.

Serbian Elections & Power Shift: Aleksandar Vučić resigned as president but plans to run for prime minister in a snap parliamentary election on Oct. 25, with Ana Brnabić taking acting presidential duties—while the campaign is already framed around media dominance and state pressure. Media & Fairness: BIRODI monitoring claims Vučić and SNS received about 78% of airtime on major TV stations from Sept. 11–30, raising fresh questions about pluralism and a level playing field. Campaign Rhetoric: Vučić says he pursued a “balanced, pro-Serbian” policy and promises to keep “only one chair” for Serbia, as he also unveils Slovak PM Robert Fico as a special guest at an SNS rally in Belgrade. Kosovo Security: Serbia’s top brass met KFOR leadership as the command changes approach, with officials stressing the security situation remains “delicate” for Serbs in Kosovo. International Security: German-linked reporting alleges GRU-linked sabotage planning behind a drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport targeting a Ukrainian cargo plane. Public Administration & Justice: Serbia’s caretaker Justice Ministry highlights expanded non-custodial sanctions and probation-style measures, while education unions complain about dismissals and employment instability.

Election Pressure & Media Dominance: Serbia’s caretaker period is heating up ahead of the Oct. 25 vote, with BIRODI reporting Aleksandar Vučić took 78% of political airtime on five TV stations (Sept. 11–30), while the Student Ticket got about 6%. Violence Allegations in Campaigning: Attorney Bozo Prelevic says the ruling SNS is using violence as a “modus operandi” after failing to respond to the Student Ticket mobilization, citing attacks on participants and observers. Political Messaging from Vučić: Vučić told reporters he pursued a “pro-Serbian” balanced policy and insists he will keep “only a Serbian chair” in the future. Justice & Probation Policy: Serbia’s caretaker Justice Minister Nenad Vujic met Angolan officials to discuss non-custodial sanctions; he says such measures now cover 25% of enforced sanctions. EU Path & Regional Diplomacy: Nemanja Starović reiterated full EU membership remains Serbia’s strategic commitment, while Bosnia’s Konaković urged the EU to respond to Mladić glorification and unblock BiH’s EU track. Energy & Nuclear Plans: France’s AFD says a Serbian nuclear reactor could be built in about ten years, but training the needed experts would take a generation. International Security: A joint investigation links a foiled Leipzig-Halle airport sabotage attempt to a Russian-linked suspect, adding to concerns about wider Russian sabotage campaigns in Europe.