AGP Executive Report

Defense Industry: Serbia’s President Vučić inaugurated an Israeli-linked plant to assemble combat drones, with Elbit Systems and Yugoimport SDPR involved, and promised at least three more facilities—part of a broader push to expand domestic military production and exports. EU Politics: European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen will skip Serbia and Bosnia on her Western Balkans tour, citing the region’s election calendar and saying she’ll return later. Regional Security & Energy: Ukraine’s Zelensky launched the “Carpathian Eight” (C8) summit, with Serbia among the partners, aiming at cooperation on security, energy and logistics; Zelensky said over 50 agreements worth more than €1bn were prepared. Kosovo Justice: The Hague sentenced former Kosovo president Hashim Thaçi to 25 years for war crimes, drawing mixed reactions across the region. Opposition Scene: The “European Serbia” electoral list faces internal withdrawals after senior SSP figures pulled out over participation in the Oct 25 vote. Elections Watch: Student politics in Serbia’s wider region stays in focus as DUSU results abroad highlight how campus contests can mirror national power struggles.

Carpathian Eight Summit: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy launched the “Carpathian Eight” (C8) with Romania, Serbia, Poland, Slovakia, Czechia, Austria, Hungary and the EU, pitching a €40bn investment portfolio and 50+ deals worth over €1bn—mostly energy (solar, wind, storage) plus transport and logistics—while talks run amid ongoing Russian strikes and stalled US-mediated diplomacy. Serbia-EU Signals: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will skip Serbia on a Balkan tour, with officials pointing to a later date tied to elections; the move comes as Brussels keeps pressing Belgrade over the glorification of Ratko Mladić. Kosovo War-Crimes Fallout: In Pristina, thousands protested the Hague conviction and 25-year sentence of former Kosovo president Hashim Thaçi, with rallies demanding appeals and denouncing the verdict. Minority Politics in Serbia: Serbia will hold national council elections for 23 minorities on Nov. 8, including the Vlach and Romanian communities—while a Romanian MP renewed criticism of Belgrade over “Vlach identity” language and rights. Domestic Campaign Tensions: A journalist in Niš says she was blocked and surrounded while filming and surveying at an SNS stand, highlighting rising pre-election friction. Security Cooperation: Serbia’s Interior Minister Ivica Dačić met the IPA’s Martin Hoffmann ahead of a Belgrade-hosted IPA world congress, focusing on community policing and safety. International Finance Watch: A report says European investors are increasingly trimming exposure to US government debt as Treasury yields stay high.

Carpathian diplomacy: Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić met Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Huta and used the Carpathian Initiative to push Serbia’s role in regional transport, energy links, tourism and business ties, while Zelenskyy launched the new “Carpathian Eight” (C8) summit in Bukovel with Ukraine, Romania, Serbia, Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria and Hungary plus EU involvement, framing it around security, logistics, energy resilience and cross-border trade. EU politics & Serbia’s election context: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reportedly cancelled a planned visit to Serbia and Bosnia due to elections, with Serbia’s parliamentary vote set for October 25. Foreign policy ties: Serbia and Georgia held bilateral political consultations in Tbilisi, with Kosovo and Metohija and human-rights concerns for Serbs highlighted; Vučić also signaled expanding Carpathian-region relations as key for Serbia’s European path. Press freedom row: Serbia ordered expulsion of Italian journalist and human-rights advocate Massimo Moratti, citing an “unacceptable security risk,” drawing strong support from free-expression groups. Regional security industry: Serbia opened/announced an assembly plant for Israeli-made drones, as defense cooperation and air-defense deals (including Rafael’s Spyder talks in the region) continue to expand. Controversial war-crimes politics: Republika Srpska’s Stasa Košarac visited Ratko Mladić’s grave, while Kosovo war-crimes convictions sparked renewed regional protests and political backlash.

Drone Industry & Defense: Serbia’s President Vučić inaugurated an assembly factory for Israeli-made drones, with claims of “around 100 jobs” and plans for at least three more Israeli-partner factories, while journalists were kept out citing production confidentiality. U.S.-Serbia Security Ties: Foreign Minister Marko Đurić highlighted the 20-year Ohio National Guard State Partnership and said the Serbia–U.S. Strategic Dialogue has elevated ties into a “strategic partnership,” with cooperation plans spanning defense, energy, education and more. Human Rights & Elections Watch: Council of Europe Commissioner Michael O’Flaherty warned at a Geneva side event that Serbia’s institutions protecting rights and the rule of law are losing trust, capacity and independence ahead of elections. Belgrade Budget Liquidity: Serbia redirected nearly 1 billion dinars from the budget reserve to the City of Belgrade to protect liquidity, after earlier budget changes. Student Politics: A student cycling tour (“Guardians of the Constitution”) kicked off to campaign for the Student List ahead of the Oct. 25 vote, framing the Constitution as being violated under the current government. Kosovo Court Fallout: The Hague sentenced former Kosovo leader Hashim Thaçi and other KLA figures, triggering protests and renewed diplomatic pressure over the verdict’s meaning for regional justice.

Kosovo War Crimes Verdict: The Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague convicted former KLA leaders Hashim Thaçi, Kadri Veseli, Jakup Krasniqi and Rexhep Selimi for war crimes, sentencing Thaçi and Krasniqi to 25 years, Veseli to 18 and Selimi to 13, while acquitting them of crimes against humanity; Human Rights Watch called it a key step for victims. Serbia-Kosovo Political Fallout: Serbian President Vučić criticized the ruling for not convicting on crimes against humanity, while Albania’s government and opposition jointly condemned the verdict as unjust. Elections & Opposition Pressure: Cardiologist Ilija Srdanović of the Student List said he won’t “get dragged into the mud” after pro-government tabloid attacks, as the Student List program pushes housing for youth, anti-monopoly steps on food prices, and transparency in public procurement. Media & Institutions: RTS’s supervisory board appointed Branislav Klanšček as acting director of Službeni glasnik, raising fresh conflict-of-interest questions. Security & Tech: Serbia’s president inaugurated a factory assembling Israeli-made drones, with plans for more sites; separately, Citizen Lab and SHARE reported Pegasus spyware targeting Serbian pro-democracy students. Diplomacy & Oversight: Serbia’s caretaker FM Marko Đurić met ODIHR’s head Eoghan Murphy on election cooperation ahead of the Oct. 25 parliamentary vote, while Serbia also signaled a strategic deepening of ties with the US.

Kosovo War Crimes Verdict: The Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague sentenced former Kosovo President Hashim Thaci to 25 years for war crimes, with Jakup Krasniqi also getting 25, Kadri Veseli 18, and Rexhep Selimi 13; Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić said the ruling left out crimes against Serbs and did not establish crimes against humanity. Diplomatic Reactions: Britain reiterated “firm support” for Kosovo’s sovereignty after the verdict, stressing it is about individuals and urging calm. Serbia-Election Politics: As Serbia’s Oct. 25 vote nears, the Student List campaign is leaning on a “number three” brand and a bicycle tour carrying copies of the Serbian Constitution across cities from Sept. 17 to 26, while election-control experts warn of past tactics like voter migrations and proxy voting. Public Health & Local Governance: A new report highlights ragweed/“frambrosia” problems in Serbia and argues Belgrade lacks capacity to suppress it, calling for stronger coordination between health and environment ministries.

Kosovo War Crimes Verdict: The Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague sentenced former Kosovo president Hashim Thaci to 25 years in prison for war crimes, including murder (96 victims), torture (303), and arbitrary detention (at least 385), while acquitting him of crimes against humanity; three other former KLA leaders were also convicted and sentenced—Jakup Krasniqi (25), Kadri Veseli (18), and Rexhep Selimi (13)—a ruling that triggered protests in Pristina and sharp political backlash from Kosovo and Albania, with France reiterating support for the tribunal. Serbia-Kosovo Tensions: Serbia’s leadership framed the verdict through a security lens: President Vučić said he will address the public after the rulings and met U.S. Ohio National Guard Maj-Gen Matthew Woodruff about rising tensions in Kosovo-Metohija and KFOR’s role. EU Pressure Over War-Crime Commemoration: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she was “horrified” by the state-linked funeral honours for Ratko Mladić in Belgrade, while UN experts warned that glorifying convicted perpetrators deepens harm to victims and undermines accountability. Domestic Politics: Serbia’s electoral commission approved the Student List for the Oct. 25 early parliamentary elections, backed by tens of thousands of signatures, as Vučić again reiterated plans to resign on Sept. 27—raising questions about when presidential elections would be held. Regional Cooperation: Kazakhstan’s parliament approved a draft law ratifying military-technical cooperation with Serbia, covering equipment supply, maintenance, joint research, and training. Mobility & Local Life: European Mobility Week opened in Belgrade, and construction began on a bike pump track at Mayfair Meadows Park.

Kosovo War Crimes: The Hague tribunal is set to deliver its verdict in Hashim Thaci’s case, with prosecutors seeking 45-year sentences and police preparing for possible unrest as Kosovo and Serbia brace for the fallout. EU Accession Pressure: After Ratko Mladić’s funeral, EU Commissioner Marta Kos and multiple European lawmakers warned Serbia that glorifying war criminals and historical revisionism clash with EU values, with concerns that Serbia’s membership path could be reconsidered. Student List Breakthrough: Serbia’s election commission registered the Student List (“Students Win”) under number 3 after the movement submitted 69,099 notarized signatures, while the campaign rolls out an 11-point plan focused on anti-corruption, lustration, and public services. Political Realignment: The “People’s Serbia” coalition withdrew from parliamentary elections, and Serbia Center (SRCE) in Užice effectively collapsed as its leadership resigned and members backed the Student List. Economy & Elections Narrative: Vučić’s planned December salary jump to an average 1,200 euros is being criticized by economists as pre-election marketing with limited real economic basis. Energy Investment: Masdar and Taaleri Energia inaugurated the 154 MW Čibuk 2 wind farm, expanding Serbia’s wind hub and boosting energy security. International Watch: A global democracy report says Serbia has regressed in justice, assembly rights, and security integrity, citing shrinking civic space.

Snap Election Campaign: Serbia’s student-led opposition formally entered the parliamentary race, submitting the “Student List – Students Win” to the electoral commission ahead of the Oct. 25 vote, after months of protests tied to the Novi Sad station disaster. Presidential Transition: President Aleksandar Vučić says he will resign on Sept. 27 and campaign as an “ordinary citizen” for the prime minister post. Election Integrity Probe: A long-running investigation into alleged SNS vote-buying and a call-center scheme has stalled, with police failing to interview anyone for nearly three years as the campaign heats up. EU Pressure Over War Crimes: The European Parliament is set to debate the Belgrade funeral of Ratko Mladić and accusations of glorifying war crimes, with EU officials previously condemning the state honors. Regional Politics: Kosovo’s new Kurti government faces a constitutional court challenge from the opposition PDK over the parliament’s inauguration process. Diplomacy: Serbia received credentials from Azerbaijan’s new envoy and met Paraguay’s ambassador, signaling continued diplomatic outreach. Energy & Economy: Masdar and Taaleri inaugurated Serbia’s 154 MW Cibuk 2 wind farm, expanding the country’s renewables push.

Student List Enters Ballot: Serbia’s student-led “Student List – Students Win” formally submitted its election ticket to the Republic Election Commission in Belgrade, after a march and a signature drive, with a full slate of 250 National Assembly candidates chosen through plenums and blockades rather than party leadership. Campaign Clash Over “Sonic Cannon”: The Higher Public Prosecutor’s Office says the alleged “sonic cannon” was not audible in the original March 15 protest footage and that later edits created the impression; it also signals criminal action against those it says spread disinformation. Education vs. Elections: Education Minister Dejan Vuk Stanković warned that any student blockades that stop classes will be treated as illegal, with salary consequences and possible inspectorate involvement. Vučić Resignation Timeline: Aleksandar Vučić reiterated he will resign on September 27, while the snap parliamentary vote is set for October 25. International Angle: Serbia’s president received credentials from multiple non-resident ambassadors, underscoring continued diplomatic outreach.

EU Accession & Diplomacy: Caretaker EU integration minister Nemanja Starović met Austria’s ambassador to discuss rule-of-law reforms and Kosovo-Metohija Serbs’ “pressure and threats,” with Austria pledging continued support for Serbia’s EU path. Foreign Policy & EXPO 2027: President Aleksandar Vučić received credentials from Azerbaijan’s new ambassador and praised Baku’s support for EXPO 2027, while also highlighting expanding cooperation beyond energy into trade, culture, education and tourism. Elections & Ballot Access: Serbia’s electoral commission approved the Progressives-led coalition list “Aleksandar Vucic – United Serbia,” placing it under ballot number one with 209,130 valid signatures; meanwhile, the anti-regime student movement says it will submit signatures for its “University Student Ticket” to the State Election Commission on Sept. 14 and march to the SEC. Campaign Finance Claims: A Vučić letter to pensioners is tied to pre-election “gifts” of 150–300 euros, with further automatic payments from the Shareholder Fund from Sept. 22, as critics argue state resources are being used for electoral gain. Rule of Law Clash: The Belgrade Center for Human Rights’ team says the prosecutor’s “sonic cannon” analysis on the March 15, 2025 protest is unsigned and full of contradictions, warning it deepens mistrust ahead of the Oct. 25 vote. Security & Military Posture: After “Victory 2026” exercises, Vučić pushed a “digital army” and shorter mandatory service, while drills also showcased robotic “dog” systems and remotely controlled combat vehicles. Regional Pressure: Croatia’s parliament speaker Gordan Jandroković warned Serbia cannot count on Croatia’s support for EU talks if it stays on the political path tied to Ratko Mladić’s funeral. Kosovo Verdict Watch: Reuters reports the Hague tribunal will deliver the verdict in Hashim Thaçi’s war crimes trial, with prosecutors seeking 45-year sentences.

Serbia’s Election Machinery: The Republic Election Commission confirmed the SNS early parliamentary list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” for Oct. 25, with 250 candidates and 209,130 legally valid signatures after processing 224,557 submitted. Student List Push: Student List supporters keep queuing across Serbia to sign for the Oct. 25 vote; in Belgrade and Novi Sad, lines reportedly stretched for hours as the University of Belgrade rector Vladan Đokić signed the list. Campaign Tensions: The Higher Public Prosecutor’s Office in Belgrade says there are no grounds to prosecute claims about a “sound cannon” at the March 15 protest, a move critics say is timed for the election campaign. Regional Politics (Kosovo): Kosovo’s parliament approved Albin Kurti as prime minister after months of deadlock, but the presidency vote remains unresolved, keeping the risk of another early election alive. Security & Diplomacy: Germany links the Leipzig airport drone sabotage to Russian GRU-linked suspects, while Serbia and China launched joint police patrols in Hainan to boost law-enforcement cooperation. Defense Talk: Vučić promoted a “digital army” concept after live-fire drills, arguing faster decision-making reduces soldiers’ exposure.

Snap Election Watch: Serbia’s election campaign is heating up as Birodi warns the Constitutional Court to rule on whether President Vučić’s prime-minister bid from the presidential office violates Article 111, while the opposition and student groups push back against the legality of the campaign. Student Politics: The “Student List” campaign is drawing huge crowds for signature verification, with reports of long queues and notary delays, as multiple non-parliamentary groups line up behind the ticket. Kosovo Court Tensions: In Pristina, thousands rally in support of former KLA leader Hashim Thaçi ahead of war-crimes verdicts at The Hague, with prosecutors seeking up to 45 years for the defendants. EU-Serbia Friction Over Mladic: Bosnia’s foreign minister calls for EU and US sanctions over state involvement in Ratko Mladić’s funeral in Belgrade, pointing to Vučić’s role. Security & Diplomacy: German reporting links the Leipzig drone case preparations to Russia’s GRU, with a route allegedly involving Turkey and Serbia. Law Enforcement Cooperation: Serbian and Chinese police begin a two-week joint patrol in China’s Hainan to boost tourist safety and bilateral cooperation.

Serbia’s Election Push: The ruling SNS submitted an election list backed by 224,000+ signatures, while the “Student List” campaign keeps momentum with rallies and long signature queues—sparking claims of unequal access to notaries and a wider fight over who can mobilize voters. Constitutional Court Challenge: Birodi is urging Serbia’s Constitutional Court to review whether President Aleksandar Vučić violated Article 111 by running a prime minister campaign from the presidential office, and asks anti-corruption bodies to act. Kosovo Verdict Tension: Tens of thousands rallied in Pristina and Kosovo’s capital to demand acquittal of former KLA leader Hashim Thaçi and three co-accused ahead of the Hague verdict. Security & International Fallout: German reporting on the failed Leipzig/Halle drone attack points to GRU-linked planning and a Bulgaria–Serbia route for explosives, escalating diplomatic pressure as Russia denies involvement. Foreign Policy & Infrastructure: Vučić inspected the Chinese-built Vozd Karadjordje expressway, while Serbia’s president also discussed Uzbekistan’s second nuclear plant with China. Sports & Culture: Serbia advanced in the FIBA 3x3 Europe Cup in Antwerp; Bitef begins in Belgrade, while the Museum of Yugoslavia abruptly canceled a Jasmila Žbanić film screening.

Kosovo War-Crimes Verdict: Tens of thousands rallied in Pristina demanding the acquittal of former KLA leader Hashim Thaçi and three co-defendants ahead of a Hague-based ruling on Wednesday, with protesters framing them as “liberators” and rejecting the charges of murder, torture and persecution. Serbia’s Election Shockwave: Serbia’s parliament was dissolved and snap parliamentary elections were set for October 25, as Aleksandar Vučić positions the vote amid months of protests and a push to secure legitimacy and momentum before opposition consolidates. Pre-Election Cash Push: Vučić announced public-sector pay rises and a pre-election “state aid” package aimed heavily at pensioners, including one-time assistance and medicine price relief. Student Politics Under Pressure: University of Belgrade faculties voted to shift the academic year start to November 1, after the election date, while student campaigns continue with low-cost “guerrilla” tactics and growing political endorsements. Leipzig Drone Case: German reporting says investigators identified two suspects in the Leipzig/Halle drone attack, linking the organizer to Russia’s GRU and tracing travel via Turkey to Serbia, escalating Berlin-Moscow tensions. Media and Dissent: N1 journalists publicly condemned alleged targeting of colleagues by the station’s leadership, as election-era tensions spill into the press and public institutions.

Presidential Transition & Snap Vote: Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić says he will resign on Sept. 25 or 26 after returning from New York, then campaign as an “ordinary citizen” ahead of snap parliamentary elections on Oct. 25—while also remaining the ruling SNS lead figure and prime-minister candidate. Election Campaign Tactics: In the same period, Vučić announced new public-sector pay rises, pension increases and one-off payments timed to the vote, raising fresh questions about how state policy and campaign politics overlap. EU Pressure Over War-Crime Funeral: Croatia’s parliament speaker warned Serbia it risks losing Zagreb’s support for EU membership and accession talks if it stays on its current political path, citing the “completely unacceptable” state-backed funeral of convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić. Student & Civil Society Tensions: Reports allege fake student lists being prepared around “Students win,” while the dean of the Faculty of Philosophy in Belgrade was attacked and students called for an end to normalized violence. Judicial Access for Disabled Children: A rights group says children with developmental disabilities face barriers to reporting violence and accessing justice due to poor procedural adjustments and inaccessible court facilities. Economy & Stability: The National Bank of Serbia reported record-high gross FX reserves of 30.80 bln euros at end-August, citing interventions and reserve management inflows.